Monitoring and Forecasting

CHC Early Estimates

The CHC Early Estimates are regional rainfall maps designed to support agroclimatic monitoring. These maps, which are updated every five days with the latest CHIRPS data, show rainfall conditions for multiple accumulation periods. A “+ forecast” version provides an outlook using a 15-day forecast. The Recent Rainfall Monitor shows conditions for the most recent 1-, 2-, 6-, 12-, and 18-pentads (5 days to 3 months).  The Seasonal Rainfall Monitor shows conditions for region-specific agricultural rainfall seasons. 

Recent Rainfall Monitor

Seasonal Rainfall Monitor

More about Early Estimates



The CHIRPS-GEFS data set uses the higher spatial resolution of CHIRPS and the advanced forecasting ability of GEFS to provide weather forecasts, updated daily at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the globe. In blending CHIRPS and GEFS, we bias-correct and downscale GEFS with respect to CHIRPS. 

Early Warning eXplorer (EWX)

The Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) is a web-based single-page application for exploration of geospatial data related to drought monitoring and famine early warning. The EWX enables scientists, analysts, and policymakers to view diverse data sets side-by-side in the same spatial bounding box, and to step through sequences of multiple time-series data sets simultaneously.

Experimental Seasonal Forecasts (NMME)

The Experimental Seasonal Forecasts presented here are derived from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project (Kirtman et al., 2014) and downloaded from the IRI data library. The NMME project includes 9 models, resulting in a total of 118 ensemble members. Previous studies have found that multi-model ensembles (MME) have higher skill at forecasting climate, and allow for better characterization of prediction uncertainty (Kirtman et al.m 2014, Shukla et al., 2016). The Climate Hazards Center converts these forecasts into seasonal percentile/SPI and then maps them to allow for easy visualization and application.

Ethiopia Special Reports

Rain gauge observations from Ethiopia's National Meteorological Agency (NMA) are blended with CHIRPS for up-to-date assessments of rainfall conditions throughout major growing seasons. Reports feature 130+ gauges across Ethiopia, which are updated every 10 days. Ethiopia Special Reports are made possible by a partnership between the CHC and the Ethiopia NMA.

Ethiopia Special Reports

Afghanistan Special Reports

This report evaluates a variety of meteorological and climatological indicators that impact water resources and agriculture across Afghanistan. It also includes a synthesis of various forecasts to anticipate future conditions.  Finally, the report summarizes the likelihood of various precipitation outcomes given the season-to-date accumulations.


Afghanistan Special Reports

Afghanistan Archived Reports


At the Climate Hazards Center, we use and support a variety of data products for monitoring and forecasting agroclimatic conditions in FEWS NET regions. 

For a region's major cropping season, FEWS NET's science partners begin evaluating climate forecasts months to weeks before the expected onset to seasonal rainfall. After this point and for the duration of the season, the timeliness and quality of rainfall and vegetation response are closely monitored. Atypical conditions that might be negatively impacting rain fed crop and pasture development can often be identified by lengthy periods of below-average rainfall and substantial delays in rainfall onset, especially in short duration season areas. Products like CHIRPS-GEFS and the CHC Early Estimates are useful for gauging the severity and likelihood of continuation of rainfall deficits in the next two weeks.

To more throughly investigate agroclimatic conditions and for specific areas of concern, FEWS NET's science partners use a convergence of evidence approach. Key resources for this are in situ observations, field reports from FEWS NET regional scientists, and remotely sensed and modeled data. These assessments are used to support FEWS NET's food insecurity outlooks, of which the CHC actively contributes to. The CHC produces the CHIRPS data set, the new CHIRTS temperature data set, and provides custom data analyses to support FEWS NET food security outlooks. 

Currently Featured Products
Currently featured are the latest CHIRPS-GEFS 15-day rainfall forecast (an unbiased GEFS forecast that is compatible with CHIRPS) and the CHC Early Estimates. The CHC Early Estimates are regional maps that show rainfall conditions for multiple accumulation periods useful for agroclimatic monitoring. Two types of these maps are available: the first type shows accumulations based on today's available CHIRPS data, which can be a combination of final and preliminary CHIRPS, while the second type extends this scenario into the next two weeks using the CHIRPS-GEFS forecast. 



Many of the data products used in assessments are accessible through the FEWS NET Data Portal (click here.) FLDAS data products can also be accessed through NASA's website (click here for water stress and other products) and the NASA Giovanni portal. Additional products, including FLDAS modeled hydrologic variables based on CHIRPS Preliminary data and more variations of CHIRPS and CHIRPS-GEFS can be accessed through the Early Warning Explorer hosted by the CHC (click here.)