AGU 2024
Monday, December 9, 2024 - Friday, December 13, 2024
CHC Early Estimates
The CHC Early Estimates are regional rainfall maps designed to support agroclimatic monitoring. These maps, which are updated every five days with the latest CHIRPS data, show rainfall conditions for multiple accumulation periods. A “+ forecast” version provides an outlook using a 15-day forecast. The Recent Rainfall Monitor shows conditions for the most recent 1-, 2-, 6-, 12-, and 18-pentads (5 days to 3 months). The Seasonal Rainfall Monitor shows conditions for region-specific agricultural rainfall seasons.
CHIRPS-GEFS
The CHIRPS-GEFS data set uses the higher spatial resolution of CHIRPS and the advanced forecasting ability of GEFS to provide weather forecasts, updated daily at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the globe. In blending CHIRPS and GEFS, we bias-correct and downscale GEFS with respect to CHIRPS.
Early Warning eXplorer (EWX)
The Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) is a web-based single-page application for exploration of geospatial data related to drought monitoring and famine early warning. The EWX enables scientists, analysts, and policymakers to view diverse data sets side-by-side in the same spatial bounding box, and to step through sequences of multiple time-series data sets simultaneously.
Experimental Seasonal Forecasts (NMME)
Ethiopia Special Reports
Rain gauge observations from Ethiopia's National Meteorological Agency (NMA) are blended with CHIRPS for up-to-date assessments of rainfall conditions throughout major growing seasons. Reports feature 130+ gauges across Ethiopia, which are updated every 10 days. Ethiopia Special Reports are made possible by a partnership between the CHC and the Ethiopia NMA.
Afghanistan Special Reports
This report evaluates a variety of meteorological and climatological indicators that impact water resources and agriculture across Afghanistan. It also includes a synthesis of various forecasts to anticipate future conditions. Finally, the report summarizes the likelihood of various precipitation outcomes given the season-to-date accumulations.
Experimental Subseasonal Forecasts (SubX)
Experimental Subseasonal Forecast maps help with the routine assessment of agricultural and hydrological conditions during a rainy season to support food security early warning.
Strategy
At the Climate Hazards Center, we use and support a variety of data products for monitoring and forecasting agroclimatic conditions in FEWS NET regions.
For a region's major cropping season, FEWS NET's science partners begin evaluating climate forecasts months to weeks before the expected onset to seasonal rainfall. After this point and for the duration of the season, the timeliness and quality of rainfall and vegetation response are closely monitored. Atypical conditions that might be negatively impacting rain fed crop and pasture development can often be identified by lengthy periods of below-average rainfall and substantial delays in rainfall onset, especially in short duration season areas. Products like CHIRPS-GEFS and the CHC Early Estimates are useful for gauging the severity and likelihood of continuation of rainfall deficits in the next two weeks.
To more throughly investigate agroclimatic conditions and for specific areas of concern, FEWS NET's science partners use a convergence of evidence approach. Key resources for this are in situ observations, field reports from FEWS NET regional scientists, and remotely sensed and modeled data. These assessments are used to support FEWS NET's food insecurity outlooks, of which the CHC actively contributes to. The CHC produces the CHIRPS data set, the new CHIRTS temperature data set, and provides custom data analyses to support FEWS NET food security outlooks.
Access
Many of the data products used in assessments are accessible through the FEWS NET Data Portal (click here.) FLDAS data products can also be accessed through NASA's website (click here for water stress and other products) and the NASA Giovanni portal. Additional products, including FLDAS modeled hydrologic variables based on CHIRPS Preliminary data and more variations of CHIRPS and CHIRPS-GEFS can be accessed through the Early Warning Explorer hosted by the CHC (click here.)