More about SubX

Experimental Subseasonal Forecasts (SubX)

*Please note that the new maps are typically available by 9 pm GMT of each Thursday; however, if the latest forecasts from all models are not available in time, the maps will also be updated on Friday and/or Saturday.
 
The maps below show the climate forecasts over the next 30 days. Global maps are available, as well as maps for food insecurity-prone regions, including Africa, East Africa, Southern Africa, West Africa, Central America, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia. The climate variables shown here are precipitation, mean daily temperature maximum, and mean daily temperature minimum. The source of these forecasts is the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) SubX project (Pegion et al., 2019), which provides climate forecasts based on multiple climate models. We are currently using climate forecasts from 5 of those models. 
 
The maps below show the anomaly of climate forecasts at “Monthly scale” (averaged over the next 30 days) and “Weekly scale” (averaged over the 1st week, 2nd week, 3rd week, 4th week, and 1-4th week). The forecast anomaly is calculated relative to each model’s own historical forecast climatology, which consists of forecasts made for the target period during 1999-2016. For example, to convert subseasonal forecasts from a given model, released during the first week of January, all historical forecasts from that given model, which were released in the first week of January (from January of 1999 to 2016) were used as its climatology. Multimodel mean is a simple average of the forecast anomalies from the 5 models. 
 
In the near future, forecasts of more variables such as sea surface temperature and wind will be added, and probabilistic forecast maps will be made available as well.
 
 

Global

Precipitation

Temperature Max

Temperature Min

Africa

Precipitation

Temperature Max

Temperature Min

East Africa

Precipitation

Temperature Max

Temperature Min

Southern Africa

Precipitation

Temperature Max

Temperature Min

West Africa

Precipitation

Temperature Max

Temperature Min

Central America

Precipitation

Temperature Max

Temperature Min

Southeast Asia

Precipitation

Temperature Max

Temperature Min

Central Asia

Precipitation

Temperature Max

Temperature Min

 

Reference: 
Pegion, K., B.P. Kirtman, E. Becker, D.C. Collins, E. LaJoie, R. Burgman, R. Bell, T. DelSole, D. Min, Y. Zhu, W. Li, E. Sinsky, H. Guan, J. Gottschalck, E.J. Metzger, N.P. Barton, D. Achuthavarier, J. Marshak, R.D. Koster, H. Lin, N. Gagnon, M. Bell, M.K. Tippett, A.W. Robertson, S. Sun, S.G. Benjamin, B.W. Green, R. Bleck, and H. Kim, 2019: The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 2043–2060, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0270.1
 
Acknowledgments:
The Climate Hazards Center acknowledges support from NASA SERVIR Applied Sciences Team grant 80NSSC20K0163, NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA)'s support through the California–Nevada Applications Program (Grant number: NA17OAR4310284), the NASA Harvest Consortium, Award No #80NSSC18M0039, and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) cooperative agreement #72DFFP19CA00001.