The SMPG is a powerful analytical tool designed to monitor the progression of the rainfall season. The SMPG compares rainfall data from the Start of the Season to the current period with long-term averages (LTA) and historical records from user-selected analog years. The analog years are selected based on the climatology for the area of concern and current climate modes. The SMPG also features an Outlook Module that simulates and calculates probabilities for the End of Season by completing the season with historical data from the analog years.

The SMPG outputs include: 

• Current Dekad/LTA Pct.: the percent of average for the accumulated precipitation from the Start of Season (SOS) up to the current dekad.
• Ensemble Med./LTA Pct.: the percent of the most likely scenario with respect to the long term average at the end of the season.
• Probability Below Normal: the probability of the season ending below normal (<33rd percentile).
• Probability Normal: the probability of the season ending normal (between the 33rd and 67th percentiles).
• Probability Above Normal: the probability of the season ending above normal (>67th percentile).
• Ensemble Med. Pct.: the percent of the most likely scenario at the end of the season.
• Current Season Pctl.: the percentile ranking of the seasonal accumulation of rainfall from the SOS up to the current dekad.
• C. Dk. + Forecast/LTA Pct.: the percent of average of the seasonal rainfall from the SOS to the current dekad including the forecast for the next dekad.

The QGIS SMPG tool plugin and installation guide can be found here.

Video Tutorial: Youtube